The past thirty years have seen enormous technological changes in the computing and information processing field. In our hobby, the changes that have occurred as a result of this have been transformative. Stamp shows have withered, society membership has declined, philatelic publications became extinct, and nearly all stamps are now sold and listed and read about online. The changes that computers have wrought have certainly been pervasive in our hobby, but the best is yet to come.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been in the works for years. Defined simply, it is the point at which computers have progressed to where they can think for themselves. Humans define the task (at least for now), and computers figure out how to do it. Google already has a car that drives itself. It is primitive and needs work, but who doubts that it is the way the future will look? The time frame of a single lifetime is too short to evaluate the significant changes that occur in the world. We are less than a hundred years from the widespread electrification of homes, and look where we are today. Imagine where another hundred years will take us!
What will the impact of AI be on philately? Any guesses that we make need to be predicated on what we believe the effect that AI will have on our society and our economy. Armies of computers at the looms and in the fields producing our food and clothing means fewer people employed and ultimately much greater profits. Years ago, a simple plane reservation meant a call to a travel agent who called the airline. Not only was the old method more time consuming than the way we do it now, but even buying an airline ticket in the computer age has put two people out of work. Computers and robotics will increasingly do more and more of all of our work. How society divides the profits from this transformation will define how we progress. It will be industry that leads these AI trends and entrepreneurs with foresight who will make it happen, and these companies and entrepreneurs will become enormously rich. How society decides to distribute this wealth will determine how we develop as a society in the future. My guess is that after lots of fighting, most of the profits from AI will be returned to society as a combination of taxes on profits and higher incomes and reduced prices because of the manufacturing efficiencies that robotics and AI allow. Despite some protest, this redistribution is fairest, and business will continue to discover that unless there is a strong middle class, there is no one to buy the wonderful, innovative, and cheap products that AI produces.
The effect on philately of AI over the next hundred years will be profound and beneficial. Most people will work less. This trend will develop slowly, but people will find that they have increased leisure time on their hands and, if politicians and business people handle the changes properly, increased money. All leisure activities will benefit. Entertainment will continue to proliferate. Did any of us ever imagine, thirty years ago, that hundreds of TV channels could be viable and produce thousands of TV shows and movies each year? Even as much of a niche hobby as it is, philately will benefit from the huge economic and demographic changes that AI will effect.